APC’s Control Of 31 States And Defections Raise Concerns Nigeria May Drift Toward A Dominant‑party System Before 2027 Elections

APC’s control of 31 states and defections raise concerns Nigeria may drift toward a dominant‑party system before 2027 elections

Nigeria’s ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) now controls 31 of the country’s 36 states, following a steady wave of defections from opposition parties, prompting concerns among analysts and political observers that the nation could be drifting toward a de facto dominant‑party system ahead of the 2027 general elections.The consolidation of power by the APC has significantly weakened major opposition parties such as the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which now holds just two governorships, and smaller parties including the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) and Labour Party, which govern only a handful of states between them. The recent defection of Governor Dauda Lawal of Zamfara State from the PDP to the APC marked the latest shift that has reinforced the ruling party’s dominance at the sub‑national level. Governors, lawmakers and influential political figures have increasingly aligned with the APC, drawn by its access to federal power, resources and strategic positions as the election cycle approaches. Political observers argue that the scale of realignment which has seen opposition parties shrink significantly since the 2023 general elections undermines the vibrancy of Nigeria’s multi‑party system and raises questions about the competitiveness of future electoral contests. Nigeria’s constitution enshrines provisions to promote a multi‑party system and prevent the dominance of any single party. But critics say the current imbalance risks turning the political landscape into a one‑party‑like environment, where genuine alternatives to the ruling party struggle to gain traction. Some analysts warn that the shrinking presence of opposition parties could discourage civic engagement and reduce meaningful political choice for voters ahead of 2027, potentially narrowing the field of credible candidates. Political scientist Daniel Nduka Okonkwo observed that although opposition parties technically continue to exist, “their diminished presence … raises serious questions about the balance of power within the country’s democratic structure.

Supporters of the APC argue that defections reflect a dynamic democracy, pointing to the freedom of association and political realignment ahead of elections as normal features of Nigeria’s politics. Some say alignment with the ruling party enhances stability and governance cooperation between federal and state levels. Opposition figures, however, have described the trend as “unhealthy,” warning that it could erode pluralism and weaken democratic competition. Critics also cite persistent internal crises within opposition parties as factors contributing to the defections, arguing that stronger, issue‑based platforms are needed to present credible alternatives to the electorate

With the 2027 general elections on the horizon, Nigeria’s political landscape is undergoing dramatic realignment. Whether the current trajectory will reshape the country’s democratic character into something akin to a dominant‑party system or whether opposition parties can regroup and present viable challenges remains a key question for voters and stakeholders alike.